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[观点]吉尔吉斯共和国前总理、澳门新葡特聘教授卓奥马尔特·奥托尔巴耶夫:后疫情时代的政府运作方式将发生改变



吉尔吉斯共和国前总理、澳门新葡一带一路学院特聘教授卓奥马尔特·奥托尔巴耶夫(Djoomart Otorbaev)日前在中国环球电视网 (CGTN) 上发表英文文章。他表示,新冠疫情将对政府的运行方式造成长久的影响。以下是经翻译后的中文版内容。




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2013年10月26日,在美国首都华盛顿的抗议政府监控的活动中,一块巨大的标语板矗立在美国国会大厦前。/新华网




由疫情引起的全球线上转型将继续进行,而且是在后疫情时代不可逆转的进程。线上有效运作的事情难以回归线下了。




相当一部分的零售企业将向线上发展和转型,消费者已经习惯不用亲自到商店购买物品了。我们正加速奔向数字时代。原本要以年计的转型似乎在几个月内就发生了。




最近,谷歌推出了全球的社区移动报告(Community Mobility Reports),以追踪各种限制措施对世界各地的影响。"这些报告反映了不同地区的不同场景下的趋势,例如公园、车站、工作场所、家庭、商店和药店这些地点的繁忙程度,以及由于对新冠病毒进行检疫和采取其他控制措施而产生的变化,"该公司说。




谷歌并没有提供各个地点的人流量,并表示它没有收集用户的个人信息,如他们的位置、联系人或活动轨迹等。当然,全球其他的高科技巨头也正在这么做。虽然他们也会有这些信息,不过并没有公布。




各国政府也开始积极使用监控手段来对抗这场疫情。他们正利用智能手机来了解谁去过哪里,以追踪疾病的传播。




对这些破坏了个人自由和隐私的监控措施,并没有多少人抗议。这些措施本身也并不新鲜,这些措施会改变我们的观念,人们认识到隐私、社会和政治权利的现实发生了变化,这种变化也许会是永远的。




中国、新加坡、韩国最先证明了,使用跟踪、监测、控制的方法是对抗病毒最有效的手段。不过这种措施立即引起了西方世界的谴责。




然而,仅仅一个月后,为了挽救人们的生命,西方国家也开始采取了完全相同的措施,而且经常更为强硬,比如西班牙、意大利、法国等国的城市和乡村都引入了军事巡逻。




那些更关心隐私、人权和自由的民众也被迫接受新的现实。显然,在未来很多人会回想这段时间,感慨有多少习惯被彻底改变了。




现在,几乎所有人都认为,像中国、新加坡这样拥有强力国家制度和"强政府"的国家,在应对疫情方面最为高效。




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2020年5月15日,在湖北武汉东西湖区一所小学的检测点,一名学生在进行核酸检测。/新华网



斯坦福大学教授詹妮弗-伯恩斯(Jennifer Burns)说,这场疫情可以建立同理心,减少要求政府发挥更大作用时产生的羞耻感。她说,当完全因为无妄之灾而陷入不幸时,人们对于接受帮助不再会感受到"耻辱和被责备"。




这就是为什么世界各地的许多政府,其中包括历史最悠久的自由主义国家,都在采取两个月前看起来不可能的极端措施。例如西班牙已经将所有的私立医院和医疗机构收归国有。 




法国政府发表声明称,准备将大部分的大企业国有化。在英国,航空、铁路和公共汽车公司可能会被国有化,以确保交通在疫情期间继续运行。




我们观察到传统的劳动力市场也在崩溃。美国、英国、丹麦等国家已经决定向公民发放现金,以保证他们的生存,并让他们留在家里。




世界各地的大多数政策制定者同意效仿一些“强政府”国家的措施,这是保证隔离成功的关键。突然间,"强政府的特征"成为各国治理措施的唯一选择。




疫情正在摧毁传统的市场经济价值。自由市场和自由贸易一直被视为市场经济运行的特有原则。这个上世纪以来的主导趋势发生了逆转,经济被从市场中剥离出来,由国家掌控。




人们变得害怕了。安全和可持续性变得比增长和财富更重要。国家必须要扮演民众生命和生存条件的维护者和保护者的角色。




人们会更愿意服从国家,更愿意把自己的部分权利让渡给强大的国家。以牺牲个人权利为代价来加强国家机构看起来将是一个不可避免的趋势。世界的重塑必然要发生。在疫情结束后,"主权全球化",本土文化特点和本土化解决方案将被更为重视。




这次冲击将长久地改变人们的生活。疫情是一场人类对抗共同敌人的战争。我们都知道,战争洗礼后的社会能更为团结。




现在,人们更加意识到,只有团结和协同一致才能成功。在后疫情时代,国家和社群将更加团结。人们将重新考虑自己与他人的关系,产生更强烈的社群意识。




澳门新葡一带一路学院廖舟 译





卓奥玛尔特·奥托尔巴耶夫(Djoomart Otorbaev)日前在中国环球电视网(CGTN)发表的英文原文如下:



Government operation styles will be different after the pandemic



Global re-orientation to online formats caused by the pandemic will continue and gets in an irreversible course in the post-pandemic era. What is effectively working online is unlikely to return offline.




A significant part of the retail businesses will go online and stay there because consumers will be convinced that they can purchase without going physically to the shops. Our transition to the digital age has accelerated enormously. What would be realized in decades is happening in months.




Recently, Google has launched global mobility reports to show how well restraining measures could work around the world. "These reports reflect trends across geographic regions in different places, such as parks, transit stations, jobs, homes, shops, and pharmacies, to show how busy these places are and what has changed as a result of quarantine and other control measures with COVID-19," the company said.




Google does not provide the exact number of visits to places and claims that it does not collect personal information about its users, such as their location, contacts, or movements, yet. Surely, other high-tech giants around the world are doing the same. Though they don't yet publish this information they own it.




Governments have started to actively use surveillance to fight the pandemic as well. They are using smartphones to control who has been where to track the spread of the disease.




Not many protests are against these surveillance methods, which undermine the freedom and privacy of an individual. Nothing new about those methods, it will only change our perception and create a new reality about people's privacy, social and political rights, perhaps forever.




China, Singapore, and South Korea were the first to prove that the use of methods of tracking, monitoring, and control is the most effective tool in combating the virus. Such measures immediately provoked condemnation in the Western world.




However, only a month later, to save the lives of people, they began applying exactly the same and often even tougher measures, like military patrols of cities and villages were introduced in Spain, Italy, and France.




Citizens who cared more about privacy, human rights, and freedom were forced to agree with the new reality as well. Obviously in the future, many will look back to this time wondering how many habits have been completely changed.




Now, almost everyone agrees that countries like China and Singapore with strong state institutions and "strong governments" have demonstrated the most efficient responses to the outbreak.




At the same time the most liberal countries with "weak governments," like the U.S. and UK showed the fundamental weaknesses during their disastrous responses. The most important part of human rights, which is the right to life, is not currently realized in those countries.




Jennifer Burns, a professor at Stanford University, said that the pandemic could build empathy and reduce shame about the need for a greater role for government. When those stricken are selected by pure chance, she said, the "stigma and blame" associated with accepting a helping hand drops away.




That is why many governments around the world, among which are the oldest liberal nations, are taking drastic measures that two months ago looked impossible. Spain has nationalized all of its private hospitals and healthcare providers.




The French government made a statement that it is prepared to nationalize most of their big companies. In the UK, airlines, railway operators, and bus companies could be nationalized to ensure that transport keeps running during the pandemic.




We observe the collapse of the traditional labor markets as well. Countries like the U.S., UK, and Denmark have decided to send their citizens cash to support their survival and to keep people at home.




Policymakers around the world are mainly in consensus about adopting those measures by "strong states," which became the critical part of successful lockdowns. Suddenly, the "strong state's characteristics" became the only alternative for countries' governance principles.




The pandemic is demolishing traditional market economic values. The principles of free market and free trade which have been seen as exclusive ways of running market economies started to break down. The dominant trends of the last century have reversed taking economies out of the market and putting it into the hands of states.




Humanity gets scared. Security and sustainability will become more important than growth and wealth. The state must be possessed with such qualities as defender and protector of people's lives and living conditions.




People will be more willing to obey the state and to give up part of their rights to the strong state. Stronger state institutions at the expense of individual rights will be an inevitable trend. World's reorganization is inevitable. Closer attention to "sovereign globalization," aimed at our cultural characteristics and localized solutions, will continue after the end of the pandemic.




Shocks like the current one will have lasting effects on people's lives. This pandemic is a war of humanity against a common enemy. We know that societies that go through wars generate stronger ties.




Now, people realize even more that only consolidation and collective actions would bring success. In the post-pandemic era, nations and communities will be more united. People will reconsider how they relate to others, which will result in a greater sense of community.






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